kumaniiar: 11th Dec 2013

Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - TAS

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 10 Dec 22:02

Dear valued members,

You should be realistic about your goals.

"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten."
Peter Lynch

Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education
only, It is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer
representative or remisier or financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours

TAS

My trading plan
I like the technical chart of this stock because there is a breakout at 0.93 on 22/10/2013.
Major resistance is 1.26.
Major support is 1.01 and 0.93
Target price = 1.71
Margin of safety = 36%
Potential profit gain = 55%
Cut loss at 0.93 = 15%
Risk reward ratio at 0.93 cut loss = 1 : 3.6

Feng Shui element = Water

Buy TAS at 1.10 (10/12/2013).

TAS IV Calculation
			Fundamental Rating
Total Net Profit Years	5/5		60.00%
			60.00%
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years	1/5
			Current Price
Total Dividend Payout Years	3/5		1.10

Total Positive free Cash flow Year	3/5
	12/20
		Growth %
5 Years Average Turn Over	110,832	35.22%
Current 4 Quarters	149,868

5 Years Average Net Profit	8,472	127.60%
Current 4 Quarters	19,282

	2012	2013	2014(Q1)	Growth
EPS (Cent)	6.34	7.65	10.96	43.27%
PE Ratio	17.35	14.38	10.04	30.20%
NTA	0.78	0.85	0.90	5.88%
Net Profit	11,198	13,455	19,282	43.31%
Equity	141,342	152,253	161,423	6.02%
ROE	7.923	8.837	11.95	35.17%
Dividend	1.5	2.0	0
Free cash flow	492	-8,383

Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History	5.67%
3 yrs Return	30.06%

Method 1
EPS	0.11
g, %	15.00
Y	7.00
IV= (EPS(8.5+1.5g)4.4)/Y	2.14
Current price	1.1
Margin of Safety	48.49%
Potential gain	94.15%

Method 2
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate	12.00%
EPS	0.11
Earning expected to grow (annually)	15.00
for the next (? Years)	3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth	3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share	1.71	Target price
Current price	1.1
Margin of Safety	35.67%
Potential gain	55.45%

Method 3
ROE	11.95%
Rr, %	8.00%
NTA	0.9
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA	1.34
Current Price	1.1
Margin of Safety	18.18%
Potential gain	22.22%

Method 4
(22.5EPSBook value per share)^0.5
EPS	0.11
Total equity	152253
Number of shares	180002
(22.5EPSTotal Equity/share)^0.5	1.44
Current price	1.1
Margin of Safety	23.84%
Potential gain	31.29%

Checklist	Goal	Actual	Remarks
5 Years Average Turn Over - any growth ?	> 10%	35%	Excellent
5 Years Average Net Profit - any growth ?	> 10%	128%	Excellent
PE Ratio	< = 15	= 10	Good
ROE	> 10%	12%	Excellent
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold 3 years)	> 10%	30%	Excellent
Dividend	3.0 sen	2.0 sen	Good
Free cash flow	Positive	No	Bad

Thank you.

Ooi Teik Bee