kumaniiar: 6th Dec 2013 - OTB Recommendation

Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - WTK

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 6 Dec 22:10

Dear valued members,

You should be realistic about your goals.

"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter
Lynch

Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is
neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or
financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours

WTK

My trading plan
I like this stock is because of economy recovery in Japan.
When Japan economy was very good in 70 and 80, the stock price of WTK IS > 10.00
The technical chart of WTK is very weak, I buy near support level.
I forecast the timber price will go up in 2014. Downside risk of the stock price is low.
Major resistance is 0.98.
Major support is 1.15 and 1.02.
Target price = 1.85
Margin of safety = 33% (1.24)
Potential profit gain = 49% (1.24)
Cut loss at 1.02 = 16%
Risk reward ratio at 1.67 cut loss = 1 : 3.2

Feng Shui element = Wood

Buy WTK at 1.22 (5/12/2013).

WTK IV Calculation
			Fundamental Rating
Total Net Profit Years	9/10		87.50%
			87.50%
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years	10/10
			Current Price
Total Dividend Payout Years	10/10		1.24

Total Positive free Cash flow Year	6/10
	35/40
		Growth %
10 Years Average Turn Over	672,015	6.05%
Current 4 Quarters	712,655

10 Years Average Net Profit	55,544	-18.00%
Current 4 Quarters	45,548

	2011	2012	2013	Growth
EPS (Cent)	15.8	10.28	10.49	2.04%
PE Ratio	7.85	12.06	11.82	2.00%
NTA	2.63	2.81	2.87	2.14%
Net Profit	68,636	44,670	64,330	44.01%
Equity	1,143,227	1,220,240	1,247,220	2.21%
ROE	6.004	3.661	5.16	40.89%
Dividend	0	2.8	0
Free cash flow	-9,047	86,299

Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History	2.74%
3 yrs Return	1.96%

Method 1
EPS	0.10
g, %	2.00
Y	7.00
IV= (EPS(8.5+1.5g)4.4)/Y	0.76
Current price	1.24
Margin of Safety	-63.53%
Potential gain	-38.85%

Method 2
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate	12.00%
EPS	0.10
Earning expected to grow (annually)	2.00
for the next (? Years)	3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth	3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share	1.11
Current price	1.24
Margin of Safety	-11.71%
Potential gain	-10.48%

Method 3
ROE	5.16%
Rr, %	8.00%
NTA	2.87
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA	1.85	Target Price
Current Price	1.24
Margin of Safety	33.01%
Potential gain	49.29%

Method 4
(22.5EPSBook value per share)^0.5
EPS	0.10
Total equity	1247220
Number of shares	438014
(22.5EPSTotal Equity/share)^0.5	2.59
Current price	1.24
Margin of Safety	52.17%
Potential gain	109.07%


Thank you.
Ooi Teik Bee