21st Dec 2013 - HapSeng WA

Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - HAPSENG-WA

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Sat, 21 Dec 10:23 

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Dear valued members,
You should be realistic about your goals.
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out
of ten" Peter Lynch
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of
education only, it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your
dealer representive or remisier or financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours
Hapseng-WA
My trading plan
I like the technical chart of this stock because the up trend is very beautiful, slow and steady.
Major resistance is 1.08
Major support is 0.94 and 0.735.
Target price = 2.28.
Margin of safety = 54%
Potential profit gain = 119%
Cut loss at 0.72 = 31%
Risk reward ratio at 1.35 cut loss = 1 : 3.9.
Feng Shui element = Metal/Wood
Buy Hapseng-WA at 1.04 (20/12/2013).
HapSeng IV Calculation		Par value = 1.00
				Fundamental Rating
Total Net Profit Years		10/10		62.50%
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years		4/10
				Current Price
Total Dividend Payout Years		9/10		2.76
Total Positive free Cash flow Year		2/10
		25/40
			Growth %
10 Years Average Turn Over		2,354,133	52.08%
Current 4 Quarters		3,580,208
10 Years Average Net Profit		281,004	102.20%
Current 4 Quarters		568,182
10 Years Average Operating Activities		23,554	2793.89%
2012 Financial year		681,627
		2011	2012	2013	Growth
EPS (Cent)		18.85	19.58	27.31	39.48%
PE Ratio		14.64	14.10	10.11	28.30%
NTA		1.51	1.61	1.70	5.59%
Net Profit		375,602	422,632	568,182	34.44%
Equity		3,293,417	3,398,641	3,382,897	-0.46%
ROE		11.405	12.435	16.80	35.07%
Dividend		4.7	6	8	33.33%
Free cash flow		-492,580	510,708
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History		9.38%
3 yrs Return		20.26%
Method 1
EPS		0.27
g, %		20.26
Y		7.00
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y		6.68
Current price		2.76
Margin of Safety		58.66%
Potential gain		141.88%
Method 2
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate		12.00%
EPS		0.27
Earning expected to grow (annually)		20.26
for the next (? Years)		3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth		3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share		4.76
Current price		2.76
Margin of Safety		42.02%
Potential gain		72.46%
Method 3
ROE		16.80%
Rr, %		8.00%
NTA		1.7
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA		3.57	Target price
Current Price		2.76
Margin of Safety		22.69%
Potential gain		29.35%
Method 4
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5
EPS		0.27
Total equity		3382897
Number of shares		2187375
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5		3.08
Current price		2.76
Margin of Safety		10.47%
Potential gain		11.69%
Warrant
HapSeng-WA
Expiration date		8/9/2016	Target Price
Exercise price		1.65	1.65
Price of Mother share		2.76	3.57
Intrinsic value of WA		1.11	1.92
Actual price of WA		1.04	2.28
Premium or Discount		-2.54	10.00%
Gearing		2.65	2.7
Target price of Hapseng-WA			2.28
Current price of Hapseng-WA			1.04
Margin of Safety			54.39%
Potential gain			119.23%
Checklist		Goal	Actual	Remarks
10 Years Average Turn Over - any growth ?		> 10%	52%	Excellent
10 Years Average Net Profit - any growth ?		> 10%	102%	Excellent
EPS (Cent) - any growth ?		> 10%	39%	Excellent
PE Ratio		< = 15	10	Excellent
ROE		> 10%	17%	Excellent
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold 3 years)		> 10%	20%	Excellent
Dividend		3.0 sen	8.00	Excellent
Free cash flow		Positive	510,708	Excellent
10 Years Operating Activities - any growth ?		>10%	2794%	Excellent
Thank you.
Ooi Teik Bee

Original Excel file from Mr OTB

Labels: HAPSENG-WA

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Chart	Stock Name	Last	Change	Volume
	HAPSENG-WA	1.04	-0.01 (0.95%)	846,300