Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - HOMERIZ
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 6 Dec 22:19
| Dear valued members, | ||||||
| You should be realistic about your goals. | ||||||
| "In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter | ||||||
| Lynch | ||||||
| Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is | ||||||
| neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or | ||||||
| financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours | ||||||
| Homeriz | ||||||
| My trading plan | ||||||
| I like the technical chart of this stock because there is a gap up on 29/10/2013. | ||||||
| Major resistance is 0.61. | ||||||
| Major support is 0.50 and 0.465. | ||||||
| Target price = 1.20 | ||||||
| Margin of safety = 52% (0.57) | ||||||
| Potential profit gain = 110% (0.57) | ||||||
| Cut loss at 0.465 = 16% | ||||||
| Risk reward ratio at 0.465 cut loss = 1 : 7.2 | ||||||
| Feng Shui element = Wood | ||||||
| Buy Homeriz at 0.555 (5/12/2013). | ||||||
| Homeriz IV Calculation | ||||||
| Fundamental Rating | ||||||
| Total Net Profit Years | 3/3 | 91.67% | ||||
| Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years | 3/3 | |||||
| Total Dividend Payout Years | 3/3 | Current Price | ||||
| Total Positive free Cash flow Year | 2/3 | 0.57 | ||||
| 11/12 | ||||||
| Growth% | ||||||
| 10 Years Average Turn Over | 101014 | |||||
| Latest 4 quarters | 112905 | 11.77% | ||||
| 10 Years Average Net Profit | 15189 | |||||
| Latest 4 quarters | 15118 | -0.47% | ||||
| Proj | ||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Growth% | 2014 | Growth% | |
| EPS (Cent) | 5.40 | 7.35 | 7.56 | 2.86% | 14.0 | 85.19% |
| PER | 10.56 | 7.76 | 7.54 | 2.78% | 4.07 | 46.00% |
| NTA | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 13.89% | 0.50 | 21.95% |
| Net Profit | 10812 | 14700 | 15118 | 2.84% | 27800 | 83.89% |
| Equity | 62886 | 72785 | 81403 | 11.84% | 91041 | 11.84% |
| ROE | 19.19% | 20.20% | 18.57% | -8.06% | 30.54% | 64.42% |
| Dividend | 0.6 | 3 | 1 | -66.67% | ||
| Free cash flow | -4427 | 19083 | ||||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold) | ||||||
| Average Return History | -3.84% | |||||
| 3 yrs Return | 5.22% | |||||
| Proj | ||||||
| Method 1 | 2013 | 2014 | ||||
| EPS | 0.08 | 0.14 | ||||
| g | 10.00 | 10.00 | ||||
| Y | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||||
| IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y | 1.12 | 2.07 | ||||
| Current price | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 48.96% | 72.44% | ||||
| Potential gain | 95.92% | 262.81% | ||||
| Method 2 | ||||||
| Discounted Cash Flows Calculator | ||||||
| Discount rate | 12.00% | 12.00% | ||||
| EPS | 0.08 | 0.14 | ||||
| Earning expected to grow (annually) | 10.0 | 10.0 | ||||
| for the next (? Years) | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||||
| before leveling off to an annual growth | 3.00 | 3.00 | ||||
| Calculate Stock Value per share | 1.10 | 1.92 | ||||
| Current price | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 48.18% | 70.31% | ||||
| Potential gain | 92.98% | 236.84% | ||||
| Method 3 | ||||||
| ROE | 18.57% | 30.54% | ||||
| Rr | 8.00% | 8.00% | ||||
| NTA | 0.41 | 0.50 | ||||
| IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA | 0.95 | 1.91 | ||||
| Current Price | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 40.11% | 70.13% | ||||
| Potential gain | 66.98% | 234.82% | ||||
| Method 4 | ||||||
| (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5 | ||||||
| EPS | 0.08 | 0.14 | ||||
| Total equity | 81403 | 91041 | ||||
| Number of shares | 200000 | 200000 | ||||
| (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 | 0.83 | 1.20 | Target price | |||
| Current price | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 31.50% | 52.40% | ||||
| Potential gain | 45.98% | 110.08% | ||||
| Thank you. | ||||||
| Ooi Teik Bee | ||||||
Labels: HOMERIZ
Related Stocks
| Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
 | HOMERIZ | 0.575 | +0.02 (3.60%) | 865,100 |
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