6th Dec 2013 - Caely

Dear valued members,http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014_otb/42868.jsp
You should be realistic about your goals.
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter
Lynch
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is
neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or
financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours
Caely
My trading plan
I like the technical chart of this stock because it is a breakout chart.
The last 2 quarter results are very good. This is a turnaround stock.
Major resistance is 0.475
Major support is 0.415 and 0.35.
Target price = 0.93
Margin of safety = 69% (0.445)
Potential profit gain = 226% (0.445)
Cut loss at 0.35 = 20%
Risk reward ratio at 1.67 cut loss = 1 : 5.4
Feng Shui element = Wood/Earth
Buy Caely at 0.44 (5/12/2013).
Caely IV Calculation
				Fundamental Rating
Total Net Profit Years		6/10		47.50%
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years		6/10
				Current Price
Total Dividend Payout Years		2/10		0.445
Total Positive free Cash flow Year		5/10
		19/40
			Growth %
10 Years Average Turn Over		88,528	9.45%
Current 4 Quarters		96,897
10 Years Average Net Profit		489	1048.26%
Current 4 Quarters		5,615
		2012	2013	2014(Q2)	Growth
EPS (Cent)		1.46	2.1	6.80	223.81%
PE Ratio		30.48	21.19	6.54	69.12%
NTA		0.81	0.81	0.87	7.41%
Net Profit		1,165	1,681	5,615	234.03%
Equity		63,674	65,319	65,886	0.87%
ROE		1.83	2.574	8.52	231.09%
Dividend		0	0	0
Free cash flow		-5,348	-4,863
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History		-6.84%
3 yrs Return		16.01%
Method 1
EPS		0.07
g, %		16.01
Y		7.00
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y		1.39
Current price		0.445
Margin of Safety		67.98%
Potential gain		212.31%
Method 2
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate		12.00%
EPS		0.07
Earning expected to grow (annually)		16.01
for the next (? Years)		3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth		3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share		1.12
Current price		0.445
Margin of Safety		60.27%
Potential gain		151.69%
Method 3
ROE		8.52%
Rr, %		8.00%
NTA		0.87
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA		0.93	Target price
Current Price		0.445
Margin of Safety		51.97%
Potential gain		108.21%
Method 4
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5
EPS		0.07
Total equity		65319
Number of shares		80000
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5		1.12
Current price		0.445
Margin of Safety		60.19%
Potential gain		151.17%
Thank you.
Ooi Teik Bee